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The Internal Revenue Service has released preliminary data from the opening weeks of the 2026 tax filing season, revealing two notable trends: average refund amounts have increased significantly year-over-year, while overall filing activity has decelerated compared to the previous season. For tax professionals, these early indicators provide valuable context for client conversations and practice management.
Key Data Points
According to IRS statistics released February 6, 2026:
| Metric | 2026 Season | 2025 Season (Same Period) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Average Refund |
$2,290 |
$2,065 |
+10.9% |
Refunds Issued |
7.4 million |
8.1 million |
-8.1% |
Total Refund Volume |
$17 billion |
$16.7 billion |
+1.9% |
Returns Received |
22.4 million |
23.6 million |
-5.2% |
Avg. Direct Deposit Refund |
$2,388 |
$2,165 |
+10.3% |
Analysis for Tax Professionals
Refund Composition Changes
The 10.9% increase in average refund amounts—translating to approximately $225 per taxpayer—suggests several potential factors at play:
- Adjustments to tax brackets and standard deductions for inflation
- Changes in withholding patterns during the 2025 tax year
- Potential impacts from recent tax legislation affecting credits and deductions
Notably, total refund volume increased 1.9% despite 8.1% fewer disbursements, indicating that higher per-taxpayer refunds are offsetting reduced filing velocity.
Filing Velocity Considerations
The 5.2% decline in returns received may reflect:
- Later distribution of key tax documents (W-2s, 1099s, K-1s)
- Taxpayer uncertainty regarding potential legislative changes
- Increased reliance on tax professionals rather than self-preparation
- Systemic delays in taxpayer decision-making.
For preparers, this moderating pace may extend the effective filing season, with peak volume potentially shifting into March.
Client Communication Strategies
Given these trends, tax professionals should consider the following approaches:
1. Refund Expectation Management
Clients receiving larger refunds may benefit from discussions regarding:
- Optimal withholding adjustments for the 2026 tax year
- Strategic applications of refund proceeds (debt reduction, retirement contributions, emergency reserves)
- Implications of reduced net pay throughout the year if over-withholding continues
2. Filing Timeline Counseling
For clients delaying submission:
- Emphasize benefits of early filing for identity theft prevention
- Clarify refund timelines (21 days for e-filed returns with direct deposit)
- Address concerns regarding potential tax law ambiguities
3. Direct Deposit Enrollment
With average direct deposit refunds ($2,388) exceeding paper check amounts, preparers should ensure clients understand:
- Expedited processing timelines
- Reduced risk of lost or stolen checks
- Simplified tracking via IRS “Where’s My Refund?” tools
Legislative and Policy Context
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly indicated expectations for “very large” tax refunds this season, suggesting potential administrative or policy factors contributing to increased disbursements. Tax professionals should monitor ongoing developments in Washington for implications affecting:
- Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) parameters
- Child Tax Credit provisions
- Business deduction thresholds
- Retirement contribution limits
Operational Recommendations
For Practice Management:
- Capacity Planning: Anticipate compressed filing periods if volume accelerates in March
- Client Outreach: Proactive communication regarding documentation requirements
- Technology Verification: Ensure e-filing systems accommodate increased direct deposit volumes
- Amended Return Preparedness: With potential legislative changes, prepare for elevated 1040-X activity
Conclusion
The 2026 filing season’s early data presents a complex picture: favorable refund outcomes for taxpayers coupled with moderating participation rates. For National Tax Preparers of America members, this environment demands balanced attention to immediate client service excellence and strategic positioning for potential late-season volume surges.
As the season progresses, NTPA will continue monitoring IRS data releases and providing actionable analysis to support your practice.
About the National Tax Preparers of America
The National Tax Preparers of America represents dedicated tax professionals committed to excellence in taxpayer service, continuing education, and ethical practice standards. For membership information or professional resources, visit www.nationaltaxpreparersofamerica.com.
This analysis is based on IRS data released February 6, 2026. Statistics are preliminary and subject to revision as the filing season progresses.
